{"id":1397,"date":"2014-03-01T14:42:25","date_gmt":"2014-03-01T19:42:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.darden.virginia.edu\/brunerblog\/?p=1397"},"modified":"2014-03-01T18:15:32","modified_gmt":"2014-03-01T23:15:32","slug":"when-winners-take-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.darden.virginia.edu\/brunerblog\/2014\/03\/when-winners-take-all\/","title":{"rendered":"When Winners Take All"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div style=\"float: left; width: 110px; margin-left: 20px; padding-top: 0; margin-top: 0; solid green; height: 144px;\">\n<p style=\"margin-top: -20px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Mg_cOdi17a4\/UBj4hlAE4wI\/AAAAAAAAESA\/y3pr5ZxVwt8\/s1600\/JerrySeinfeld.jpeg\"><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0px;\" title=\"clip_image002\" alt=\"clip_image002\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.darden.virginia.edu\/brunerblog\/files\/2014\/03\/clip_image002.jpg\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"font-style: italic; margin-right: 3em; margin-top: 10px;\">\u201cThe Olympics is really my favorite sporting event. Although I think I have a problem with that silver medal. Because when you think about it, you win the gold &#8211; you feel good; you win the bronze &#8211; you think, \u2018Well, at least I got something.\u2019 But when you win that silver it&#8217;s like, \u2018Congratulations, you almost won. Of all the losers you came in first of that group. You&#8217;re the number one loser. No one lost ahead of you!\u2019&#8221;<br \/>\n\u2014 Jerry Seinfeld, from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Im-Telling-You-Last-Time\/dp\/B00000AFGO\"><i>I\u2019m Telling You for the Last Time<\/i><\/a> (1998)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\">\n<p><span class=\"has-dropcap\">T<\/span>he 2014 Winter Olympics games are now behind us. The cascade of newly-created celebrities sparks a reflection about the winner-take-all phenomenon: the asymmetry of rewards, where the winner reaps an outsized share of the rewards in the game, leaving little or nothing behind for the others. This seems unfair, especially on behalf of those who trained thoroughly, played hard, observed the rules, and finished second\u2026or last. And it is not hard to find examples. Olympic Gold Medalists benefit disproportionately from endorsement revenues, speaking fees, and the like. Think of the compensation of top <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brw.com.au\/p\/lists\/top-entertainers\/2013\/brw_top_entertainers_XqnzWYBwyoo2xojhRPilTP\">performing artists<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ticketnetwork.com\/blog\/post\/2013\/05\/18\/top-10-highest-paid-athletes-in-professional-sports.aspx\">sports figures<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aflcio.org\/Corporate-Watch\/CEO-Pay-and-You\/100-Highest-Paid-CEOs\">CEOs<\/a>. Or, think of the windfalls to successful <a href=\"http:\/\/au.ibtimes.com\/articles\/314409\/20120315\/microsoft-australian-inventor-ric-richardson-patent-dispute.htm#.UvTvc2Yo6M8\">inventors<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.therichest.com\/business\/entrepreneurs-under-30\/\">entrepreneurs<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/content.time.com\/time\/specials\/packages\/article\/0,28804,1848817_1848816_1848803,00.html\">Nobel Laureates<\/a>. Think of Secretariat, <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/ESPN_Sports_Century\">ranked as the top race horse<\/a> of the 20<sup>th<\/sup> Century\u2014can you recall the also-rans? Think of the sheer dominance of Microsoft in computer operating systems, of Google in Internet search, or of New York and LA in respect to arts and entertainment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\">When winners take all<\/p>\n<p>Robert Frank and Philip Cook, in their classic book, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Winner-Take-All-Society-Much-More-Than\/dp\/0140259953\/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1393700748&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=Frank+Cook+Winner+take+all+society\"><i>The Winner-Take-All Society<\/i><\/a><i>, <\/i>wrote that the \u201cwinner-take-all markets translate small differences in performance into large differences in reward.\u201d They identified a range of attributes:<\/p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\"><!--\nul li {margin-bottom: 10px;}\n--><\/style>\n<ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"margin-left: -2px;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">A focus on relative, rather than absolute, performance<\/span>. In most markets, the reward from your effort is based on how many hours worked or how many widgets produced\u2014those are examples of absolute performance. But in some settings, absolute performance does not yield the reward; what matters is being better than competitors. The focus on relative performance differentiates the winner from the rest. The asymmetry of rewards to effort can lead to the dystopian frame of mind expressed by Gore Vidal: \u201cIt is not enough merely to win; others must lose.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/ul>\n<div style=\"float: right; margin-left: 2em;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.darden.virginia.edu\/brunerblog\/files\/2014\/03\/clip_image004.png\"><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0px;\" title=\"clip_image004\" alt=\"clip_image004\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.darden.virginia.edu\/brunerblog\/files\/2014\/03\/clip_image004_thumb.png\" width=\"244\" height=\"148\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Concentration of rewards<\/span> \u201cin the hands of a few top performers, with small differences in talent or effort often giving rise to enormous differences in incomes,\u201d as Frank and Cook wrote (p. 24). To help you visualize what this looks like, the graph nearby presents a hypothetical payoff across a range of 50 players on the basis of relative performance. Math geeks will recognize this as an exponential curve\u2014the point is that the rewards are not flat across performance (pure equality) nor growing linearly (in common proportion across added units of performance). Rather the payoffs compound as units of relative performance grow.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Overcrowding<\/span>. For every rock star, there are many thousands of \u201cwannabees.\u201d The focus on relative performance and resulting asymmetric payoffs tend to draw into the competitive field more contestants than may be warranted on any rational calculation of benefits and the probability of winning. Overcrowding causes the dilution of benefits to non-winners across a wider population. All of this leads to \u201ctragedy of the commons\u201d in that too many also-rans depress the per-capita compensation for them. Frank and Cook wrote, \u201cthe overcrowding problem in winner-take-all markets arises because participation in these markets is misleadingly attractive to individuals.\u201d (p.21) They point to a variety of possible causes of overcrowding, such as overconfidence (a belief that you can beat the odds and win); thrill-seeking; status-seeking, and\/or intrinsic joy in the activity (you love to sing opera in the shower and therefore audition for the Met).<\/li>\n<li>The <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">rise of mass-markets<\/span> for some kinds of talent (e.g. prizefighting on cable TV) that makes it possible to reach a very large audience and leads to outsized purses to the winner.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Network effects<\/span> can create winners who take all: consider that a product can become more valuable, the more people that use it. The fax machine is a prime example, as is Microsoft\u2019s <i>Windows <\/i>software. Competitors in a market may be able to gain outsized rewards through the adroit use of network effects.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Lock-in or barriers to exit\u2014path dependency<\/span>. Microsoft <i>Windows <\/i>illustrates another aspect of winner-take-all markets: apparent customer loyalty might be driven by the cost and inconvenience of switching to a competitor. The customer is locked-in, assuring repeat sales and a strong market franchise. This produces what Frank and Cook call, the \u201cMatthew Effect\u201d (\u201cFor unto everyone that hat shall be given, and he shall have abundance; but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.\u201d)<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Feedback loops<\/span>. Being known as a leader may enhance your chances of remaining a leader in future rounds of competition. Think of the movie director who gets bankrolled on the basis of past film successes, or the Grand Slam tennis pro who gets top-seeding in subsequent tournaments. In business, the saying was, \u201cyou never get fired by buying IBM\u201d\u2014where you are less confidence in your own analysis, it may be easier to go with a well-known brand. Well-branded products can discourage buyers\u2019 remorse. Of course, the feedback loops can work in a negative direction as well.<\/li>\n<li>The emergence of \u201c<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">deep-pockets markets<\/span>,\u201d which Frank and Cook describe as \u201ca small number of buyers intensely interested in the winner\u2019s performance.\u201d The market for expensive art, yachts, and professional services such as law, asset management, or investment banking. Customers in these markets want the very best and are relatively price-insensitive.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Markets for status or positional goods<\/span>. The economist, Thorsten Veblen, first identified \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Conspicuous_consumption\">conspicuous consumption<\/a>\u201d as a phenomenon in economic behavior. Perhaps people buy luxury goods not because they are better made, but because they signal success, exclusivity, and taste and therefore help to attain higher social status. Such goods are all about relative positioning and they command a substantial premium in the market.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Information revolution<\/span>. We are flooded with free and easily accessible information that helps us make relative comparisons, such as \u201clikes,\u201d ratings, rankings, and customer comments. More is known about products and their relative positions. There is more criticism, commentary, and opinion-generation. Aggregators of opinion (Fandango average the ratings of critics and fans). Information overload makes one default to the positionally-dominant product\u2014branding pays. IT grants an increased ability to match products and buyers in deep-pocketed markets (e.g. ebay). Increased transparency about social context heightens relative comparisons: think of the close scrutiny drawn by published salaries. The advent of information technology has undoubtedly intensified the winner-take-all phenomenon through transparency that helps one to compare relative positions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The problems with winner-take-all markets, as Frank and Cook see it, have to do with wasteful investment, overwork to try to stay competitive with peers, or over allocation of talent to a field of marginal benefit to society (how many oboists or hedge fund traders does the world need?) In an effort to cultivate the aura of a \u201cwinner\u201d contestants may tend to overinvest in cosmetics, clothes, homes, and lifestyles. Wasteful investment might lead to intensified competition in settings where collaborative effort might be better\u2014the aspirants to the top job in politics or business might behave in ways that make the enterprise or society worse off. This is the familiar \u201cprisoner\u2019s dilemma\u201d problem in which individual incentives yield bad results for the group as a whole.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Now, take a deep breath<\/p>\n<p>It is the notion that the rewards accelerate (\u201cthe rich get richer\u201d) that makes the winner-take-all phenomenon a pi\u00f1ata for egalitarians. The fact that the rich get richer\u2014without much more absolute performance\u2014seems <i>unfair.<\/i> Does the fact that the Gold Medalist beat the Silver by a tenth of a second warrant a much richer payoff for the Gold? Going farther down that path, one might wonder <i>how much <\/i>of a time difference would justify a greater payoff for the Gold? That\u2019s like asking how much curvature in the payoff graph you would be willing to accept. The fact that people will disagree on the answer makes it very difficult to assert exactly <i>when<\/i> a market becomes winner-take-all. We are left echoing the words of former Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, who <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/I_know_it_when_I_see_it\">opined<\/a> in reference to obscenity, \u201cI know it when I see it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>America values equality of opportunity. But strict equality often imposes its own tyranny. And life is full of unfair advantages. You might envy your neighbor\u2019s good looks\u2014do you really feel that society owes you a surgical makeover? Anyway, is the downside of failure in a winner-take-all market always catastrophic? In his seminal article on winner(s)-take-all (\u201cThe Economics of Superstars\u201d), Sherwin Rosen wrote,<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-style: italic; margin-left: 2em; margin-right: 2em;\">Too little is made of the option value of occupational risk-taking. Private and social losses are limited by a person\u2019s option to quite competing and try something else. Working life and long and most of the time this information comes fairly quickly. There is compelling empirical evidence\u2026that lawyers who do not make partner in big firms live nicely as partners in smaller ones, that would-be Picassos live useful and rewarding lives as commercial artists, and similarly for just about every high risk occupation. Some people who fail do suffer disastrous consequences, but generally less is at stake in these gambles than meets the eye. (p. 135)<\/p>\n<p>It is argued that winner-take-all markets reveal an inefficiency, a market breakdown. Flawed markets invite government intervention, which Frank and Cook sought to remedy by progressive taxation, \u201carms-limitation\u201d agreements, and other intrusions. But there is not enough evidence yet to convince an objective judge that this market inefficiency is so costly as to warrant intervention. Anyway, it is hard to imagine what might be the interventions in higher education. Is the NCAA a good model of \u201carms limitation\u201d in higher education? Is it really all that bad? In reviewing the book by Frank and Cook, John Kenneth Galbraith (himself an opponent of economic inequality) wrote,<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-style: italic; margin-left: 2em; margin-right: 2em;\">The problem is that a good point is carried to extremes\u2014generalized well beyond its reach. This is not a winner-take-all society; rather, it is an economic world in which the case the authors describe plays an interesting but far from dominant role. <i>No wheat grower, no dentist, no housepainter has a dominant position in his or her industry. Athletics, which is the authors\u2019 starting point and to which, rather significantly, they frequently return, is programmed to produce a clear-cut winner; not so for many other activities, even where there is considerable market concentration. I recently looked into the matter of automobile excellence. I came away from the search almost completely innocent as to which might be the best\u2014or the best for me. The fact that so many companies\u2014U.S., Japanese, German, Swedish\u2014all compete and survive goes far to refute the idea that there is any clear winner in automobiles, that there is any serious chance that one will soon take most, let alone all.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>As business ethicists usefully remind us, the really chewy dilemmas don\u2019t involve choices between good and evil, but between two goods. In the case of the winner(s)-take-all phenomenon, we see our values of <i>fairness <\/i>(or social good) pitted against <i>merit <\/i>(or individual good.) It is argued that the winner(s)-take-all markets divert rewards to the apparent winners on the basis of attributes other than merit and function to the detriment of the also-rans. Here, we confront the definition of \u201cmerit\u201d and \u201cdetriment\u201d and how they are measured. Again, we are stuck in Potter Stewart-land.<\/p>\n<p><b>So what?<\/b><\/p>\n<p>You can debate the impact of the winner(s)-take-all phenomenon, but I would advise you not to deny its existence or relevance. Business students are making career choices this season. And it looks like the secondary market for talent (judged by headhunter activity) is heating up. Several different entrepreneurs have whispered to me that they are about to launch new businesses. In these and other contexts, <i>relative positioning <\/i>can matter a lot\u2014and this means that you face potential asymmetric payoffs characteristic of winner(s)-take-all. Such markets are clearly not for the faint-of-heart: the failure rate is very high; the field will likely be crowded; competitors probably overinvest beyond rational bounds; competition may grow intense and even unethical; and ultimately the difference between the winners and the rest may be scant.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll have more to say about the winner(s)-take-all phenomenon in future posts. But here are a few generic questions to consider as you peer into the unknown right now:<\/p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\"><!--\nol li {margin-bottom: 10px;}\n--><\/style>\n<ol>\n<li>In the place to which I\u2019m headed, how important in their evaluation will be will be <i>relative <\/i>performance versus <i>absolute <\/i>performance?<\/li>\n<li>On what basis is performance assessed?<\/li>\n<li>In producing such performance, how significant are effects such as reputation\/branding, lock-in, status, mass-markets, and deep pockets?<\/li>\n<li>How crowded is the field of competition?<\/li>\n<li>How have the rewards been distributed in the past? How asymmetric is that distribution?<\/li>\n<li>How much <i>transparency <\/i>is there regarding the distribution of rewards?<\/li>\n<li>And the really big one: How much time, talent, and treasure am I willing to invest in an effort to win?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Jerry Seinfeld\u2019s riff on the Olympics is funny on one level. But as psychologists tell us, there is often a kernel of anger within humor. No doubt, <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Adam_Nelson\">Adam Nelson<\/a> knows. Nelson (Darden MBA 2008) won the Silver Medal in the 2004 Olympics, in the shot put event. Then, in May 2013, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.teamusa.org\/News\/2013\/May\/30\/Adam-Nelson-To-Be-Awarded-2004-Gold-In-Shot-Put\">International Olympic Committee awarded<\/a> the 2004 Gold Medal to Nelson when it was revealed that the apparent previous winner was guilty of drug doping. The Associated Press quoted Nelson a year ago: &#8220;It&#8217;s not just a victory for me, but a victory for the system. I can&#8217;t dwell on what happened or didn&#8217;t happen eight years ago. I can only look forward to what the next phase in life brings. At least now I can do that with a Gold Medal.&#8221; Or, as Seinfeld said, \u201cyou win the gold, you feel good.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.darden.virginia.edu\/brunerblog\/files\/2014\/03\/clip_image006.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0px;\" title=\"clip_image006\" alt=\"clip_image006\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.darden.virginia.edu\/brunerblog\/files\/2014\/03\/clip_image006_thumb.jpg\" width=\"244\" height=\"117\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cThe Olympics is really my favorite sporting event. Although I think I have a problem with that silver medal. Because when you think about it, you win the gold &#8211; you feel good; you win the bronze &#8211; you think, \u2018Well, at least I got something.\u2019 But when you win that silver it&#8217;s like, \u2018Congratulations, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v20.10 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>When Winners Take All - Robert F. Bruner<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"March 1, 2014 - \u201cThe Olympics is really my favorite sporting event. 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