<\/p>\n
\u201cBack then, we were living through an inflection point, a moment of tension and uncertainty.\u201d\u00a0 – President Biden, Remarks to the United Nations, September 24, 2024<\/p>\n
T<\/span>his has been quite an autumn.\u00a0 Geopolitical developments (ICBMs over Ukraine, North Korean soldiers in the fight, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Sudan, Argentina, stunning US election results); economic developments (inflation, a runup in US stock prices around the election, slumps in Germany and China, artificial intelligence, driverless cars, SpaceX, Tesla); and cultural developments (Taylor Swift! Elon Musk! Harry & Meghan!).\u00a0 I\u2019m hearing and reading some buzz that we are treading on one of those razor edges in history, an inflection point after which nothing will be the same.\u00a0 Pundits who loudly backed winners or losers in the US elections are especially prone to this.\u00a0 The aim of this post is to invite you to reflect on the difficulty of calling historical inflections, and to take a deep breath.\u00a0 The Thanksgiving holiday in the US is a prime opportunity to do so.<\/p>\n What is an inflection point?<\/strong><\/p>\n In mathematics, an inflection point is where the rate of change in a curve changes sign\u2014a rising or falling trend begins to slow down or to accelerate.\u00a0 To the public, an inflection point looks like the moment when a trend crests and begins to fall, or hits bottom and begins to rise. \u00a0Economists, historians, and political scientists cite inflection points where major change occurs, typically leading to a new direction and marking the end of one era and the beginning of another.\u00a0 Oft-cited examples are the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 (the start of World War I), bombing of Pearl Harbor in 1941 (triggering the entry of the US into World War II), the collapse of the USSR in 1991, 9\/11, and various revolutions (1688, 1776, 1789, 1917, etc.)\u00a0 No official body designates events as inflection points.\u00a0 Rather, they gain prominence by general assent.\u00a0 Therein lies the weakness of the idea.\u00a0 A year or an event can be an inflection point if some people say so\u2014but who says so?<\/p>\n The idea of an inflection point in history is a modern concoction.\u00a0 Frequency of the term, “inflection point,” among published books grew during 1940-1960, and again around 1970, plateaued, and then boomed again in the 2020s.<\/p>\n In the wake of the recent Federal elections in the US, pundits on all sides of the political and economic spectrum assert that major change is on the way.\u00a0 Is it?\u00a0 The right answer is that it is too early to tell. The explanation points to the difficulties of forecasting.<\/p>\n The major problem: inflection points are rarely sudden<\/strong><\/p>\n It seems that the popular conception of an inflection point is of step-function change: radical and sudden.\u00a0 But history shows that change\u2014even after major events\u2014tends to be gradual.\u00a0 And even the identification of inflection points rarely happens in the instant, but only after some time has passed.\u00a0 This means that the significance of any turmoil one observed this fall is probably too soon to tell.\u00a0 It would take a crystal ball, a skill of perfect foresight to tell whether a particular event will result in major change.<\/p>\n My research on financial crises gives some instructive examples.<\/p>\n My point is that it is too early to tell<\/em> whether any of the events of 2024 matter historically.<\/p>\n Why can\u2019t we foresee?<\/strong><\/p>\n Predicting economic turns is notoriously challenging.\u00a0 Consider five reasons.\u00a0 First, the economy of the US\u2014and indeed, the world\u2014is immense and complex.\u00a0 Forces such as consumer behavior, government policies, technological innovations and other drivers interact in complex ways that are difficult to model.\u00a0 Second, random shocks (such as natural disasters, political changes, inventions) come along to alter economic expectations.\u00a0 Shocks are inherently unpredictable.\u00a0 Third, information is often out-of-date, incomplete, or inaccurate, meaning that even with the best models, garbage in becomes garbage out.\u00a0 Fourth, people behave in ways that deviate from models of rational action: cognitive biases can prompt people to respond bizarrely to news.\u00a0 Fifth, it can take weeks, months, or years for the consequences of events to show an impact.\u00a0 For instance, money supply changes typically show up in inflation only several months later.\u00a0 These challenges mean that even the most sophisticated models and experienced economists can struggle to accurately predict economic turning points.<\/p>\n The story is much the same in politics.\u00a0 <\/strong>In the past few weeks, we have heard some buzz about how this most recent election is fundamentally \u201crealigning,\u201d meaning an event that marks sharp change in ideologies, voting behaviors, political parties, contestable issues, and\/or candidates\u2019 attributes.\u00a0 Two examples of realigning elections are<\/p>\n But identifying federal elections as \u201crealigning\u201d is challenging.\u00a0 First, electoral change emerges gradually.\u00a0 Realignments often occur over several election cycles rather than in a single election.\u00a0This makes it difficult to pinpoint the exact moment when a realignment has occurred.\u00a0 Second, realignments arise from a host of social, economic, and political factors\u2014in 2024, such factors included immigration, inflation, the rise of anti-elitism, and the lingering effects of the pandemic.\u00a0 Such factors make it hard to anticipate realignments.\u00a0 Third, lagging change occurs in politics as well.\u00a0 Gradually voters can abandon former loyalties and ideologies in search of new advocates for their interests.\u00a0 Finally, even the experts disagree on the occurrence of realignments and their causes.\u00a0 Yale professor David Mayhew examined assertions that many different elections were \u201crealigning\u201d and concluded “Electoral politics is to an important degree just one thing after another\u00a0… Elections and their underlying causes are not usefully sortable into generation-long spans\u00a0… It is a\u00a0Rip Van Winkle\u00a0view of\u00a0democracy\u00a0that voters come awake only once in a generation\u00a0… It is too slippery, too binary, too apocalyptic, and it has come to be too much of a dead end.”[i]<\/a>\u00a0 And Sean Trende opined, \u201c”Almost none of the theories propounded by realignment theorists has endured the test of time… It turns out that finding a ‘realigning’ election is a lot like finding an image of Jesus in a grilled-cheese sandwich \u2013 if you stare long enough and hard enough, you will eventually find what you are looking for.\u201d[ii]<\/a><\/p>\n So, how should we approach the future?<\/strong><\/p>\n Some good advice is contained in Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction<\/a>, <\/em>by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner.\u00a0 In studying the small population of people who forecast future economic results better than the mass of forecasters, Tetlock and Gardner report three sets of attributes) that one would be well advised to adopt today:<\/p>\n So, how should we deal with the unbearable lightness of foresight?[iv]<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Be grateful for what we do know.<\/em>\u00a0 Reach out.\u00a0 Take the long view.<\/p>\n The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart \u2026In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union.<\/em><\/p>\n Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defense, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle or the ship; the axe has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.<\/em><\/p>\n No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. \u2026It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and one voice by the whole American People. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving \u2026 with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience \u2026 to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with \u2026 enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility and Union.<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n [i]<\/a> Mayhew, David R.\u00a0Electoral Realignments: A Critique of an American Genre<\/em>. 2004. (ISBN<\/a>\u00a00-300-09336-5<\/a>), pages 147 and 152.<\/p>\n [ii]<\/a> Sean Trende, 2012. The Lost Majority, <\/em>New York, NY: St. Martin\u2019s Press: Kindle Edition locations 231 and 238.<\/p>\n [iii]<\/a> Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner, 2016. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,<\/em> New York, NY: Crown, page 19.<\/p>\n [iv]<\/a> Pardon my riff on the title of a movie I liked, The Unbearable Lightness of Being.<\/em><\/p>\n [v]<\/a> From Copilot AI: \u201cBoth emotions can trigger powerful responses in the brain, similar to other forms of addiction.\u00a0 Fear activates the body’s fight-or-flight response, releasing adrenaline and other stress hormones. This can create a heightened state of alertness and energy, which some people might find exhilarating or even addictive.\u00a0 Outrage, on the other hand, can produce a rush of dopamine, the same neurotransmitter involved in pleasure and reward. This can make the feeling of outrage rewarding in the short term, despite its negative consequences. Outrage can also foster a sense of moral superiority and community among those who share the same feelings, which can be socially reinforcing. Both emotions can create a cycle where individuals seek out situations that provoke these feelings, leading to a kind of emotional dependency. Understanding this can help in developing healthier ways to manage and respond to these powerful emotions.\u201d<\/p>\n [vi]<\/a> Source of Lincoln\u2019s Thanksgiving proclamation: American Battlefield Trust, https:\/\/www.battlefields.org\/learn\/primary-sources\/abraham-lincolns-proclamation-thanksgiving<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u201cBack then, we were living through an inflection point, a moment of tension and uncertainty.\u201d\u00a0 – President Biden, Remarks to the United Nations, September 24, 2024 This has been quite…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\n
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